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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Analysis]: US officials said Trump is considering withdrawing from the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement next year and is waiting for US inflation data." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On December 5, in early trading in the Asian market, spot gold was trading around US$4,207.50 per ounce. Gold prices were basically stable on Thursday, showing a tug-of-war pattern between long and short factors. The market is waiting for U.S. inflation data to determine the Fed's policy outlook next week; U.S. crude oil traded around $59.70 per barrel. Oil prices closed higher on Thursday, mainly driven by the dual factors of expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the deadlock in Ukraine peace talks.
The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday, ending a nine-day losing streak, but remained near five-week lows as the market prepared for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. At the same time, the Japanese yen continued to strengthen to its highest level in nearly two and a half weeks as market expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this month increased.
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.02, initially halting nine consecutive losses. The market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week is close to 90%. Despite strong initial jobless claims data in the United States last week, it did not change the market's firm expectations for an interest rate cut. In addition, speculation that White House economic adviser Hassett may take over as chairman of the Federal Reserve continues, and the market believes that its policy stance may be dovish. This factor also puts pressure on the dollar.
The yen rose 0.2% against the dollar to 155.015 yen, close to its strongest level since November 17. The driving force mainly www.xmasseuse.comes from market expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at its December meeting.
The euro fell 0.2% against the dollar to $1.1649. Strong euro zone business activity data failed to offset the dollar's short-lived rebound. GBP/USD fell 0.2% to 1.3333 dollars, but remains near recent highs.
Analysts pointed out that despite the strong bearish sentiment on the U.S. dollar, it may not be wise to bet heavily on the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar at this time, and the current trend may not last until early next year. For the yen, while the market is paying attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes, it is also wary of the uncertainty of its follow-up policies and the pressure that may be brought about by carry trades.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that interest rates are affected by "a variety of factors" and reiterated that the government will pay close attention to market dynamics, implement appropriate debt management policies, and formulate budgets with fiscal sustainability in mind.
Katama also said that the government will continue to coordinate with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for its key policy meeting in December.
Retail sales in the Eurozone remained unchanged in October, in line with expectations, highlighting the sluggish consumer environment before the end of the year. Category-level data showed mixed trends: spending on food, beverages and tobacco increased by 0.3% month-on-month, while non-food products (excluding fuel) fell by 0.2% month-on-month. Motor fuel sales rose 0.3% month-on-month, which helped offset weakness in other areas but was not enough to lift the overall index.
Retail activity was also flat across the EU, further reinforcing the image of stagnant household consumption. Differences among member states remain significant. Luxembourg had the strongest monthly growth of 3.6%, followed by Estonia (1.7%) and Croatia (1.4%). In contrast, Belgium saw a steep 1.3% decline, with Austria (-0.6%), Ireland (-0.4%) and Sweden (-0.4%) also reporting declines.
In the week ending November 29, the number of initial unemployment benefits applicants in the United States dropped sharply by 27,000 to 191,000, which was far lower than the expected 220,000 and the lowest level since September 2022. The four-week moving average also fell by $9,000,000 to 215,000.
As of the week of November 22, the number of continuing applicants fell slightly by 4,000 to 1.939 million. Its four-week average fell slightly by 6,000 to 1.945 million, indicating some stabilization after previous signs of softening.
The data contrast with recent deteriorations in other labor indicators, including a weak ADP report, highlighting that the job market remains tight despite clear signs of cooling elsewhere.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: U.S. officials said Trump is considering withdrawing from the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement next year and waiting for U.S. inflation data". It was carefully www.xmasseuse.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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