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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: Global bond market linkage, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on December 4". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures all rose, with the Dow futures rising 0.08%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.04%, and the Nasdaq futures rising 0.01%. Germany's DAX index rose 0.79%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.18%, France's CAC 40 index rose 0.43%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.39%.
⑴ Global bond markets continued the recent linkage pattern on Thursday, with Japanese bonds leading the sell-off During the tide, the 10-year Japanese bond yield once hit 1.941%, a new high since 2007. However, it rebounded significantly in the afternoon due to strong demand for the 30-year Treasury bond auction (the bid multiple jumped to 4.04), and the yield curve flattened. ⑵ U.S. bonds closely followed the trend of Japanese bonds, and the 10-year yield once rose to 4.09%, but the increase was limited. The market's tactical tendency is to conduct two-way range trading when the 10-year yield is close to the middle of the range (4.05%), with expected fluctuations ranging from 4.11% to 4.07%. ⑶Traders' radar is fully focused on key labor data released early Thursday, including the Challenger layoff report, weekly jobless claims, and the Revelio public labor statistics report. These data are crucial because they are the last batch of labor market www.xmasseuse.comrmation before the Federal Reserve's December FOMC meeting. ⑷ Specific data expectations show that the market has digested the structural contradictions in the labor market: the number of initial jobless claims is expected to rise only slightly, supporting the "low layoffs" phenomenon.status; and the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits continues to be high, which confirms the dilemma of "low employment". ⑸The Challenger Report last month showed that the number of layoffs surged 175% to 153,000, of which 31,000 were related to artificial intelligence. The magnitude of this month’s data decline and its structure (such as changes in factors such as AI and cost reductions) will affect the market’s judgment on the health of the labor market. ⑹ Uncertainty also exists at the political level. Media reports indicate that if Hassett, the current director of the National Economic Council, is nominated as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Secretary Bessent may concurrently serve as chairman of the Federal Reserve. This potential change in personnel arrangements adds to the variability of the policy path. ⑺ Overall, against the background of another delay in the release of the official non-farm payrolls report, today's alternative data will bear heavier pricing weight, and any weaker or stronger signals than expected may significantly change market expectations for the Fed's decision-making at next week's meeting.
⑴ The U.S. general collateral repurchase rate weakened 1 basis point at the opening on Thursday, with the buyer's quotation at 3.96%. The www.xmasseuse.com repayment of US$7 billion in Treasury bond settlement funds resulted in an increase in additional cash chasing collateral. ⑵ As the trading day progresses, overnight interest rates are expected to move toward the 3.87% level, which is the midpoint of the Fed's 3.75% to 4.00% interest rate corridor. The upper limit of the interest rate corridor at 4.00% is expected to support GC interest rates. ⑶ Since GC opened 4 basis points below the 4.00% level, the standing repurchase facility will most likely not be used today and will still be available at 8:15 AM and 1:15 PM ET. ⑷The market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are extremely strong. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, federal funds futures pricing shows that the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the December and January FOMC meetings is 85% and 28% respectively. ⑸ Short-term overnight index swap market pricing is more aggressive, with the 0x3 term OIS interest rate falling to 3.622%. Based on the current 10-day average overnight financing rate of 4.00%, this means that market pricing has a 100% probability of an interest rate cut by 25 basis points in the next 90 days, and a 51% probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut. ⑹ The financing interest rates of treasury bonds of all maturities in the repo market are lower than the GC interest rate, indicating sufficient supply of collateral. Among them, the financing interest rates of 10-year and 20-year treasury bonds are 36 basis points lower than the GC interest rate, indicating a significant premium. ⑺In general, the short-term financing market has ample liquidity and interest rates are softening, coupled with strong interest rate cut pricing in the derivatives market, jointly pointing to financial conditions reflecting in advance the expectation that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will soon shift to easing.
⑴ Data from global employment agency Challenger shows that U.S. employers announced plans to lay off 71,321 people in November, a 53% drop from October. ⑵ However, this number is still 24% higher than the same period last year and is the highest November since 2022.The high scale of layoffs indicates that adjustment pressure in the labor market still exists. ⑶So far this year (the first 11 months), the cumulative number of layoffs announced by employers has reached approximately 1.171 million, an increase of 54% www.xmasseuse.compared with the same period in 2024, indicating that the overall scale of annual layoffs has significantly expanded. ⑷In sharp contrast, the total number of planned recruitments during the same period is only 497,151, setting the lowest year-to-date level since 2010 and a 35% decrease from the same period in 2024. ⑸ This www.xmasseuse.combination of "high layoffs but weak hiring" has caused the labor market to fall into a stagnant state called "no layoffs, no hiring" by policymakers and economists. ⑹ The factors causing this situation are www.xmasseuse.complex: including the contraction of labor supply caused by the reduction of immigration, the replacement of some entry-level jobs by artificial intelligence, and the uncertainty of the economic environment caused by Trump’s tariff remarks, which have restricted the recruitment ability of enterprises (especially small businesses). ⑺In terms of industries, telecom operators (mainly Verizon) led the planned layoffs in November, followed by technology www.xmasseuse.companies and meat processing www.xmasseuse.companies. Restructuring was the main reason for layoffs, while the proportion of layoffs directly caused by artificial intelligence is still relatively small.
On December 4, local time, India's largest airline, IndiGo, canceled more than 180 flights at three major airports in New Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore. The airline canceled at least 150 flights the day before, causing great trouble to passengers. IndiGo Airlines stated that the main reason for flight delays and cancellations is the implementation of new regulations on pilot duty and rest. The www.xmasseuse.company is working hard to adapt to the strict new crew scheduling regulations, and announced on the 3rd the launch of "gradual adjustments" to the flight schedule in the next 48 hours.
South Africa's presidential spokesman Vincent Magwenya said on social media He said that around this time next year, the United Kingdom will take over the rotating presidency of the G20, and South Africa will have meaningful and substantive contacts with other countries on important international issues of www.xmasseuse.common concern.
⑴ According to the three-month regression analysis of the constant yield to maturity, after adjusting the directionality of the interest rate difference between the two countries, Portugal's 5-year government bonds appear to be very cheap relative to Spanish government bonds of the same period. ⑵ Specific data shows that the yield on Portuguese 5-year bonds is 1.5 basis points higher than its beta-adjusted Spanish bond yield of the same period. ⑶ This price difference deviation is statistically significant, reaching 3.4 standard deviations, indicating that the current pricing deviates significantly from the historical correlation model. ⑷ However, from a pure basis point spread (1.5 basis points), the potential arbitrage profit space is limited, so it may only be available to those who already hold relevant positions or haveAttractive to investors with specific trading needs. ⑸ Historical data shows that the correlation coefficient between the 5-year government bond yields of Portugal and Spain in the past three months has been as high as 0.996, indicating that the two trends are highly synchronized, and this deviation is a rare phenomenon. ⑹ This short-term significant deviation may stem from specific changes in bond supply and demand in the two countries, investor position adjustments, or differences in micro-level interpretations of their respective fiscal dynamics. ⑺For relative value traders, this provides a potential hedging opportunity to short Spanish 5-year government bonds and go long Portuguese 5-year government bonds, with the hope that the spread will return to the historical mean in the future.
⑴The British energy regulator approved a five-year energy www.xmasseuse.comwork investment plan totaling approximately 28 billion pounds on the 4th to upgrade the national electricity and natural gas transmission infrastructure. ⑵ The British Gas and Electricity Market Authority stated that this is the largest energy www.xmasseuse.comwork expansion project in the UK in decades. It aims to improve the security and resilience of the power grid and natural gas pipeline www.xmasseuse.comwork, reduce energy transmission bottlenecks, and support the development of renewable energy.
⑴ Oil exports from Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and the CPC terminal were about 1 million tons lower than planned in November as severe storms and recent drone attacks disrupted loading operations, three industry sources revealed. ⑵ Sources said that the planned loading capacity of Urals crude oil, Siberian light crude oil and KEBCO crude oil at the Novorossiysk port in November was about 3.2 million tons, but the actual export volume was only about 2.5 million tons. One source said Novorossiysk was still loading cargo planned for November, with operations expected to last until December 7. ⑶At the same time, two sources pointed out that shipments of CPC blended crude oil have also been delayed, and about 300,000 tons of cargo loaded on two Suezmax tankers have been postponed until December. The delays further exacerbate constraints on export capabilities faced by Russia following recent attacks on critical port infrastructure in the Black Sea. ⑷ Sources said that Russia’s oil export plan for December is already quite large, and additional quantities postponed in November may lead to further delays to January next year.
⑴Retail sales in the Eurozone in October 2025 were flat month-on-month. The previous value was slightly revised from an increase of 0.1%, and was less than the market expected growth of 0.1%. ⑵ The positive contributions from sales of food, beverages and tobacco increased by 0.3% (previous value was down 0.2%) and motor fuel sales increased by 0.3% (previous value was flat), which were offset by weak non-food sales. The latter fell 0.2% month-on-month in October after remaining flat the previous month. ⑶On a year-on-year basis, retail activities showed stronger growth momentum: sales in October increased by 1.5% year-on-year, higher than September's 1.2% and slightly higher than market expectations of 1.3%.
⑴ The British pound two-year swap spread widened by 0.6 basis points on the day. It is worth noting that since the entire SONIA spread curve is negative, the "widening" here means that the negative spread has expanded, that is, the swap rate has performed better than government bonds. ⑵ In contrast, the rest of the swap curve changed little: the five-year spread widened 0.1 basis points, the 10-year spread widened 0.2 basis points, and the 30-year spread remained unchanged. ⑶ This market structure clearly shows that investors are most active in pricing the outlook for short-term interest rates. Two-year swap spreads have widened significantly, reflecting that markets are actively pricing in an upcoming shift in monetary policy from the Bank of England, particularly a potential rate cut. ⑷ The performance of swap rates is better than that of government bonds of the same maturity, which usually means that the market’s expectations for the future path of risk-free benchmark interest rates (such as SONIA) are being lowered, which is consistent with the market’s strong expectation that the Bank of England will soon start an interest rate cut cycle. ⑸ The steepening change in the interest rate spread curve (short-term changes are greater than long-term changes) further implies that the market believes that interest rate cuts will mainly affect short-term interest rates in the next two to three years, while it still maintains a relatively wait-and-see attitude towards the longer-term interest rate path. ⑹ This kind of trading behavior can be regarded as the market's "front-running" before the central bank meeting. Investors use swap contracts to hedge or bet on the risk of falling short-term interest rates. ⑺ In the future, attention will focus on whether short-term interest rate spreads will further widen, and whether interest rate spreads of five years and above will follow suit. This will verify whether the market's expectations for the depth and breadth of the interest rate cut cycle are consistent.
⑴ The U.S. Henry Hub natural gas benchmark price soared to more than $5 per million British thermal units on Wednesday, hitting a three-year high due to domestic cold weather and surge in demand for raw materials from LNG plants. ⑵At the same time, sufficient global LNG supply (mainly from new production capacity in the United States) has depressed prices in major demand centers in Asia and Europe. European benchmark TTF prices have recently fallen below 30 euros per megawatt hour, hitting a new low since April 2024. ⑶ This price dynamic on both sides of the Atlantic has caused the price difference between Henry Hub and TTF to narrow to about $4.70 per million British thermal units, the narrowest level since April 2021, severely squeezing the profit margins of U.S. LNG exporters. ⑷ Analysts pointed out that many U.S. LNG export contracts will be unprofitable when the price difference falls below US$4. If the price difference falls below the US$2 production cost line, operators will almost certainly have to cut production. ⑸Although the current price difference is not enough to trigger production cuts, risks are accumulating in the future. According to data from the International Energy Agency, global annual LNG export capacity is expected to increase by 300 billion cubic meters between 2025 and 2030, of which about 45% www.xmasseuse.comes from the United States. ⑹ The U.S. domestic natural gas market is becoming tense. The growth in demand for LNG exports and domestic consumption such as data centers will continue to push up U.S. gas prices in the next few years. The withdrawal of clean energy support policies in the context of Trump's tariff remarks may exacerbate this situation. ⑺This creates a political risk: falling profits may force U.S. producers to cut operations, which is in line with the Trump administration’s reduction inWith the twin goals of low domestic energy prices and increased LNG exports conflicting, market dynamics are evolving into potential political burdens.
⑴ A survey of a policymaker group released by the Bank of England on Thursday showed that more than 2,000 British www.xmasseuse.companies expect to reduce the number of employees in the next 12 months, but at the same time plan to maintain price increases similar to before. ⑵ Specific data shows that www.xmasseuse.companies plan to increase prices by 3.7% in the next year. This expectation is 0.1 percentage points higher than the survey one month ago, showing that their willingness to pass on costs is still strong. ⑶Employment expectations for the next year fell by 0.1 percentage points to minus 0.2% in the three months to November, indicating that the labor market may be about to contract. ⑷Business expectations for consumer price increases in the next year remain unchanged at 3.4%. This is in contrast to the UK's actual inflation rate falling to 3.6% in October, which means that the business www.xmasseuse.community is cautious about the sustainability of the fall in inflation. ⑸The survey also shows that www.xmasseuse.companies expect salary growth in the next year to be 3.8%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the three-month survey ending in October, and wage pressure has not eased. ⑹ This series of data depicts that the British economy is facing typical "stagflation" characteristics: www.xmasseuse.companies plan to continue to raise prices due to cost pressures (especially wages), and at the same time consider layoffs due to concerns about demand prospects, and the contradiction between growth and inflation intensifies. ⑺ This situation will make the Bank of England's policy decisions more www.xmasseuse.complicated. Although inflation may have passed its peak, stubborn price and wage expectations will restrict its space for rapid interest rate cuts, and monetary policy may remain restrictive for a longer period of time.
⑴Eurozone retail sales data for October was released on Thursday, with an annual growth rate of 1.5%. This growth rate is higher than the 1.3% expected by market surveys, indicating that consumer demand has a certain degree of resilience. ⑵ However, looking at the month-on-month data, retail sales in October were the same as the previous month, with a growth rate of 0.0%, consistent with market expectations, indicating that the monthly growth momentum has temporarily stalled. ⑶ Sub-item data shows that the internal growth structure is differentiated. Sales of food, beverages and tobacco increased by 0.3% month-on-month, while sales of non-food products other than automobile fuel decreased by 0.2% month-on-month. ⑷ Looking at the year-on-year trend, retail sales growth has continued to slow down since reaching a high of 3.8% in June. Although it rebounded slightly from 1.5% in October, it is still in a downward channel as a whole. ⑸The annual year-on-year growth rate of non-food products (excluding motor fuel) was 2.1%, significantly faster than the 0.9% growth rate of food products, indicating that discretionary consumer spending remains relatively strong. ⑹ The data reflects that the Eurozone consumer market presents a www.xmasseuse.complex picture in an environment of inflationary pressure and high interest rates: overall demand has not stalled, but growth momentum has significantly weakened, and the trends of necessities and optional consumer goods have diverged. ⑺For the European Central Bank, this data may strengthen its wait-and-see stance because there is no consumption collapse.There are no signs that overheating demand needs to be further suppressed. Future policies will rely more on subsequent inflation and wage data.
⑴ Data released by the Greek Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that the country’s unemployment rate dropped to 8.2% in the third quarter from 8.6% in the second quarter, continuing the improvement trend in the labor market. ⑵The data also reveals the structural differentiation of the job market. The female unemployment rate in the third quarter was 10.6%, which was significantly higher than the male rate of 6.2%, showing that employment recovery between genders is uneven. ⑶A more severe challenge is the problem of long-term unemployment. Data shows that of the total 393,162 unemployed people, about 59.0% are long-term unemployed, which means that they have not worked for at least 12 months. ⑷The proportion of long-term unemployed people is too high, indicating that the foundation of the labor market recovery is not yet solid, and some workers may have difficulty re-entering the job market due to skill mismatch. ⑸Although the decline in the overall unemployment rate is a positive signal, internal structural problems mean that the Greek economy still faces challenges in creating high-quality, sustainable jobs. ⑹ Future policies need to focus on retraining and employment promotion for long-term unemployed groups to consolidate the social foundation for economic recovery and prevent the long-term drag of structural unemployment on consumption and domestic demand.
EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD fell and is now at 1.1665, a decrease of 0.05%. Prices (EUR/USD) resumed their gains in the last intraday trade before the New York session, having gone through a natural profit-taking phase in today's early trade, unloading overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator and gaining more positive momentum, with a bullish correction wave taking over on a short-term basis, trading along trend lines supporting the stability of this trajectory.
GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3338, a decrease of 0.11%. Before the New York market opened, GBPUSD fell in the last intraday session to collect gains from its previous advance in an attempt to gain bullish momentum that may help it return to strong gains on a near-term basis, in addition to unloading clear overbought conditions on some relative strength indicators, especially the negative signal after breaking the resistance at 1.3265, which represents the expected target in our previous analysis. A bullish correction trend dominates on a short-term basis, and its trading is parallel to the trend's supporting trend line.
Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now trading at 4187.94, a decrease of 0.36%. New York City pre-market, (yellowGold) price rose in the last intraday trade as it relied on support from the EMA50, gaining bullish momentum that helped it halt its early losses, especially after reaching oversold levels, which were exaggerated relative to the price action. The relative strength indicator started forming a positive divergence, from where positive signals emerged, dominated by the bullish trend on a short-term basis and its trading along the trendline.
Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now trading at 57.239, a decrease of 2.13%. (Silver) prices fell in the last trading session pre-market in New York as solid resistance settled at $58.80 and negative signals emerged on the relative strength indicator after reaching overbought levels, trying to gain bullish momentum that could help it recover and rise again, especially by trading along major and minor trend lines on a short-term basis.
Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now trading at 59.350, an increase of 0.70%. Prices (crude oil) fell in the last session before the New York session as the relative strength indicator turned negative, trying to gain bullish momentum that may help it recover and rise again, as it trades above the EMA50, which continues to receive positive support, and it trades parallel to the short-term slight bullish trend line, strengthening the chances of a price recovery in the www.xmasseuse.coming period.
⑴Francisco Pessole, ING foreign exchange strategist, pointed out that Swedish inflation slowed more than expected in November, but given the improved growth prospects and the central bank’s cautious policy guidance, the Swedish central bank is unlikely to turn to a dovish stance. EUR/CHF remains unaffected despite weak data.
⑵ "Sweden's preliminary inflation data in November was lower than expected. The overall CPIF (fixed-rate consumer price index) slowed sharply from 3.1% to 2.3% (expected to be 2.5%), and the core indicator excluding energy also slowed from 2.8% to 2.4% (expected to be 2.6%)."
⑶"Although the deceleration of inflation exceeded expectations, Sweden The threshold for a dovish re-pricing of the krona OIS curve remains high. The Riksbank did not show any strong dovish data signals when it cut interest rates to 1.75%, and it needs to see the risk of inflation falling materially below target before considering another rate cut. "
⑷"We are still optimistic about the EUR/O in our Foreign Exchange Outlook.The Swedish krona trend forecast is confident, with a target of 10.90 at the end of the year, and then a gradual decline to reach 10.50 by the end of 2026. ”
⑴Capital Economics’ head of Asia-Pacific markets said in a report that the yen and Japanese stocks are expected to perform well next year, and in www.xmasseuse.common currency terms, Japanese government bonds should outperform similar bonds in most developed markets.
⑵ He gave three reasons for optimism. First, corporate earnings are likely to remain resilient as U.S. tariff risks subside and corporate reforms bear fruit. Second, fiscal concerns appear to be overblown and Japan may record a budget surplus this year. Finally, the MSCI Japan Index and the yen are undervalued, indicating that market sentiment is too pessimistic and may be sharp. Reversal.
⑶ However, the director noted that strong profits may boost wage growth and trigger further tightening of policy by the Bank of Japan, putting pressure on Japanese government bonds. He added that a possible rebound in the yen may also create headwinds for domestic stock markets.
The above is about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Global. The entire content of "Bond market linkage, short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on December 4th" was carefully www.xmasseuse.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thank you for your support!
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