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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: US private employment data is weak, silver falls rapidly after hitting new highs!". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On December 4, in early trading in Asia, spot gold was trading around US$4,206.67 per ounce. The price of gold was stable on Wednesday, while silver hit a record high of US$58.95 per ounce, affected by the weak U.S. economy. Private employment data boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts; U.S. crude oil traded around $59 per barrel. Oil prices closed higher on Wednesday as U.S.-Russian talks on ending the war in Ukraine failed to reach a breakthrough, weakening prospects for easing sanctions on the Russian oil industry and releasing more supply in the short term.
There was significant divergence in the foreign exchange market on Wednesday. Affected by strong economic data in the euro zone and weak employment data in the United States, the euro-dollar exchange rate rose 0.43% to 1.1673, hitting the highest level in nearly seven weeks. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.45%, which strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week, with the probability rising to 89%.
The Japanese yen continued to be supported by the Bank of Japan’s clear signal to raise interest rates, and the U.S. dollar fell 0.47% against the Japanese yen. The pound also rebounded sharply, rising more than 1%.
The main factor driving the market is the difference in performance of the European and American economies. Business activity in the euro zone expanded at the fastest pace in two and a half years in November, while U.S. ADP private employment unexpectedly fell.
In addition, political speculation about the possibility of changing the chairman of the Federal Reserve and implementing looser policies, as well as market optimism about a possible peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, also suppressed the dollar.
Eurozone PPI rose slightly by 0.1% month-on-month in October, but fell 0.5% year-on-year, lower than the expected -0.4%.
The monthly rise in Eurozone PPI reflected modest gains in most major categories, including intermediate goods, energySources, capital goods and consumer durables all rose 0.1%. The exception was consumer non-durable goods, which fell 0.2%, and the overall performance was slightly important.
In the broader EU, PPI also rose by 0.1% month-on-month, but fell by 0.2% year-on-year. Price fluctuations are uneven across member countries. Bulgaria had the most significant monthly increase, reaching 4.6%, followed by Ireland (1.4%) and Estonia (1.3%). At the same time, significant declines were seen in Slovakia (-1.0%), Poland (-0.5%) and Italy (-0.4%).
The final Eurozone services PMI index rose to 53.6 from 53.0, hitting a 30-month high, further consolidating the industry's position as the main driver of regional growth. The www.xmasseuse.composite PMI also rose to 52.8 from 52.5 - another 30-month high - indicating that the strength of the services sector is more than making up for continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.
The national-level PMI www.xmasseuse.composite indicator shows widespread participation: Ireland leads the way with a 42-month high of 55.8, and Italy also reaches a 31-month high of 53.8. Germany (52.34) and Spain (55.1) softened slightly, and France resumed expansion, rising back to 50.4.
Cyrus de la Rubbia, chief economist at Hamburg www.xmasseuse.commerzbank, said the data showed "clear signs of recovery" in the service sector. The improvement was enough to boost overall euro zone output, supporting expectations for a "slight acceleration" in economic growth in the fourth quarter. While the overall index was "far from prosperous," de la Rubbia described overall performance as "relatively strong" and underpinned by encouraging geographic coverage.
Price indicators sent mixed but generally favorable signals to policymakers. Price inflation in the services sector, which is closely monitored by the ECB, weakened again "significantly" while wage growth gradually slowed. Taken together, these data are likely to strengthen the ECB's belief in maintaining interest rates at its upcoming meeting.
The UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was finalized at 51.3 in November, down from 52.3 in October. The www.xmasseuse.composite PMI dropped from 52.2 to 51.2, clearly losing momentum after several months of improvement. S&P Global's Tim Moore said the data showed the gradual recovery in orders since the summer "came to an abrupt end", with demand weakening in both domestic and export markets.
Reduced workloads have led to slower growth in business activity, with expansion well below post-pandemic trends. Businesses are also cutting jobs at the fastest pace since February, signaling an increasingly cautious operating environment. Survey respondents noted that fragile customer confidence, rising risk aversion and heightened policy uncertainty have led to many decisions being delayed.
www.xmasseuse.competitive pressure intensifies as www.xmasseuse.companies face weak sales channels. While input cost inflation accelerated - largely due to higher wages - sales price inflation rose at the slowest pace in almost five years, pointing to a squeeze on profit margins.
US ISM Services PMI edged up from 52.4 to Novemberof 52.6, exceeding expectations of 52.0 and becoming the ninth expansionary reading in 2025. Business activity edged up to 54.5 from 54.3, but new orders plummeted to 52.6 from 56.2, suggesting demand was cooling. Employment also improved slightly, rising to 48.9 from 48.2, but remains in contraction.
The most significant change came from the price index, which fell from 70.0 to 65.4, the lowest level since April. While still high, the decline suggests that inflationary pressures in the services sector - an area the Fed watches closely - are easing. The data further paint a picture of gradual cooling beneath the surface as order growth weakens.
According to ISM data, real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 1.3% in November, indicating that the services sector is still actively driving overall activity. However, a www.xmasseuse.combination of weak new orders and falling prices have reinforced expectations of slower momentum towards the end of the year.
U.S. ADP private employment fell by 32,000 in November. This sudden drop from the expected increase of 19,000 became one of the weakest readings this year. Recruitment fell in both major industries, with the production industry losing 19,000 jobs and the service industry losing 13,000 positions, highlighting the general cooling of labor demand.
Analysis by www.xmasseuse.company size highlights the pressures faced by smaller www.xmasseuse.companies. Small businesses shed 120,000 jobs, largely driving the overall decline, while medium-sized businesses added 51,000 jobs and large employers added 39,000 jobs.
Wage growth has also slowed: wages for permanent workers fell from 4.5% to 4.4%, while wage growth for job-changers fell from 6.7% to 6.3%, continuing the trend of slowing wage pressure.
ADP's Dr. Nela Richardson said the recruitment environment is increasingly uneven, citing "consumer caution and an uncertain macroeconomic environment." She stressed that while the slowdown was widespread, the contraction was driven primarily by small businesses - which tend to be the most sensitive to changes in demand and credit conditions.
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