The "small non-agricultural sector" in the United States is upset, and attention turns to U.S. employment data

On December 4, in early Asian trading on Thursday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 98.92. On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index continued its decline. After the ADP employment report showed an unexpected decline in U.S. employment in November, the U.S. dollar expanded its losses and finally closed down 0.45% at 98.88; the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield finally closed at 4.0670%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, closed at 3.4980%. The unexpected drop in ADP data strengthened expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut next week, but spot gold fell back after hitting $4,240 and finally closed down 0.08% at $4,202.42 per ounce; spot silver hit a record high of $58.98 and then fell back, finally closing up 0.04% at $58.47 per ounce. Investors believe that the Russia-Ukraine peace talks are unlikely to lead to the lifting of Russian crude oil-related sanctions, and international oil prices rose, reversing earlier declines. WTI crude oil finally closed up 0.84% ​​at US$59.12/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.64% at US$62.78/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 98.92. The dollar is www.xmasseuse.coming under pressure as expectations grow that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may be tapped to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. Technically, the U.S. Dollar Index is trying to stabilize below the support levels of 98.85 to 99.00. If this attempt is successful, the US Dollar Index will head towards the next support level, which is located in the 98.00 to 98.15 range.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1664. EUR/USD is rising but there is a lack of obvious excitement behind it. Unless the Fed clearly www.xmasseuse.commits to easing or euro zone growth confidence improves, progress to the upside is likely to remain incremental rather than significant. Currently, the pair is still mostly referencing the USD side. Technically, if EUR/USD holds above 1.1650, it will move towards the nearest resistance at 1.1715–1.1730.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3340. A mixed set of U.S. economic indicators released this week did little to change expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully breaks through the 1.3375 mark, it will move towards the next resistance level of 1.3475–1.3490. It is important to note that the RSI is in overbought territory, so the risk of a pullback is increasing.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Thursday, gold hovered around 4213.03. U.S. private payrolls fell by 32,000 jobs in November, according to data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on Wednesday. The figure followed a gain of 47,000 jobs (revised from 42,000) and was below market expectations for a gain of 5,000 jobs. The report pointed to a weakening in the U.S. labor market, which weighed on the dollar and provided some support for dollar-denominated www.xmasseuse.commodity prices.

Technical aspect: Gold's upward trend still exists, but the average daily closing price falls below US$4,200, which will increase the possibility of challenging low prices. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), while bullish, is slightly flat, showing signs of consolidation as traders await new catalysts. If gold breaks through $4,250, it will have the opportunity to test $4,300 and surpass the all-time high of $4,381. Otherwise, if gold breaks below $4,200, the next support is the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,113, ahead of $4,100.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Thursday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 58.83. Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday after briefly falling as traders digested the latest crude inventory report from the U.S. Energy www.xmasseuse.comrmation Administration (EIA). This week’s EIA report showsDemand signals were more modest, with crude oil inventories rising by 574,000 barrels, below expectations of 1.9 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories also rose sharply.

Technical: WTI continues to fall below the downward trend line on the daily chart, indicating that bears still control the situation. The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) serves as immediate resistance, coinciding with the downtrend line around $59.50. A clear breakout of this area will expose the next resistance area, with the $60.50-$62.00 range strengthened by the 100-day moving average. A decisive move higher above this area is needed to relieve broader bear pressure. On the downside, initial support is near $58.00, followed by the November low around $57.00, below which could bring deeper losses. Momentum indicators present a mixed but slightly constructive picture in the short term. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slightly above the signal line, close to zero, and presents a moderately positive histogram, indicating that bearish pressure is waning. The relative strength index (RSI) is around 48, reflecting neutral momentum, moving towards the 50 midline. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 12.7, highlighting the lack of a strong trend.

Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on December 4, 2025

①15:00 The Ministry of www.xmasseuse.commerce held the first regular press conference in December

②16:00 Swiss seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in November

③18:00 Euro zone monthly retail sales rate in October

④20:30 US Number of layoffs by challenger www.xmasseuse.companies in November

⑤21:30 Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to November 29

⑥23:00 Global supply chain stress index in the United States in November

⑦23:30 EIA natural gas inventories in the United States for the week to November 28

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