Wonderful introduction:
The moon waxes and wanes, people have joys and sorrows, life changes, and the year has four seasons. If you survive the long night, you can see the dawn, if you endure the pain, you can have happiness, if you endure the cold winter, you no longer need to hibernate, and after the cold plums have fallen, you can look forward to the new year.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On December 3, the foreign exchange market focused on the divergence of global central bank policies and the game of economic data. The US dollar continued to be under pressure due to expectations of interest rate cuts, the euro was supported by the European Central Bank's stance on maintaining stability, and Asian currencies such as the RMB fluctuated slightly. The following is a summary of the core good and bad news that affected the foreign exchange market that day to provide a reference for trading:
The rebound in the Eurozone CPI strengthened the European Central Bank's expectations for stabilization: the Eurozone CPI rebounded to 2.2% in November, and service industry prices remained stubborn. This data directly led to the ECB's December interest rate cut being "almost impossible." Many ECB officials stated that the current interest rate is within a neutral and reasonable range. President Lagarde emphasized that the policy setting is appropriate, and Governing Council member Nagel also recognized the existing monetary policy. The market expects the European Central Bank to keep interest rates unchanged in December, and the probability of cutting interest rates next year is only 25%. The stability of the policy significantly supports the euro, and the euro against the dollar remains near the 1.1600 mark.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has soared, suppressing the dollar: Bank of America has significantly adjusted its forecasts and changed its expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The CME Fed Watch tool shows that as of 7:00 on December 3, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points that month has risen to 89.2%. Previously, core officials such as the chairman of the New York Fed released dovish signals, and Hassett was "internally confirmed" as the popular candidate for the dovish Fed chairman. The market's bets on easing policies continued to heat up, and U.S. bond yields were under pressure, which indirectly benefited non-U.S. currencies.
Japanese bond auction stabilizes and eases liquidity anxiety: Japan’s 10-year government bond auction has strong demand, and the benchmark government bond yield that once climbed to a 17-year high has attracted investors such as pension funds to enter the market. The auction stabilized and easedConcerns about tight liquidity in the global market and a rebound in risk appetite pushed the U.S. dollar against the yen to rise by nearly 0.5%. It also provided a relatively stable market environment for the fluctuations of non-U.S. currencies, which was beneficial to the trend of risky currencies.
Dazzling U.S. retail data boosts risky currencies: Data from the National Retail Federation showed that the number of people shopping during the Thanksgiving holiday reached 202.9 million, which not only exceeded expectations, but also set a historical record since 2017. The "good start" to the holiday shopping season reflects the resilience of the U.S. consumer market. While driving the rise of U.S. stocks, it also increases market risk appetite and benefits risk currencies such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar that are closely related to consumption and trade.
The RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar: On December 3, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was reported at 7.0912, an increase of 118 basis points from the previous trading day. The RMB showed a slight depreciation trend against the US dollar. After the opening, the onshore RMB fluctuated and fell to around 7.0950, while the offshore RMB simultaneously fell to the 7.1020 range. This adjustment is affected by changes in global capital flows and adjustments to the interest rate differential between China and the United States. It is negative for the trend of the RMB against the US dollar in the short term. It will cost about 118 yuan more to exchange 10,000 US dollars.
The pound is weighed down by interest rate cut expectations and economic concerns: The market is generally betting that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in December, and this expectation puts the pound under significant downward pressure. GBP/USD fluctuated around 1.3200, after falling significantly from a five-week high. The short-term technical picture shows a weak structure. In the absence of support from heavy economic data, if it cannot break through the key moving average range, the upward momentum will continue to be limited. Expectations of interest rate cuts and changes in the Fed's policy outlook will continue to be negative for the pound.
Risk factors suppress currencies such as the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar: Although the Australian dollar is consolidating above 0.6450 against the US dollar, the threat of Trump's tariffs is approaching, coupled with concerns about China's economy, and Australia's current account deficit continues to expand, restricting its upside. The New Zealand dollar fell to around 0.5880 against the US dollar. New Zealand's www.xmasseuse.com exports have declined for two consecutive quarters, the risk of economic recession has increased, and weak fundamentals are significantly negative for the New Zealand dollar.
Geological and political risks disturb the mood of the euro zone: the French government passed the social security budget without a vote, and the far-right party will support a motion of no confidence in the government, and the vote may be held on December 4. At the same time, the French Public Audit Office warned of the urgent need to reduce the fiscal deficit. Domestic political uncertainty and fiscal risks may weaken market confidence in the euro zone economy, which may put correction pressure on the euro in the short term.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market". It is carefully www.xmasseuse.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Live in the present and don’t waste your present life by missing the past or looking forward to the future.