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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: Inflation data stirs the market, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on December 2". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures all rose, with the Dow futures rising 0.10%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.24%, and the Nasdaq futures rising 0.33%. Germany's DAX index rose 0.62%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.24%, France's CAC 40 index rose 0.29%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.65%.
⑴ On Tuesday, euro zone government bond yields continued their rise, with the German 10-year government bond yield rising 1 basis point to 2.75%, close to the highest level since late September, continuing the selling trend that fell nearly 6 basis points on Monday. ⑵The latest preliminary inflation value for the Eurozone in November was 2.2%, slightly higher than market expectations of 2.1%, further strengthening the expectation that the European Central Bank will not cut interest rates in the short term, which is a direct factor driving upward interest rates. ⑶Market analysis pointed out that the discussion on the candidate for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve may have triggered market concerns about inflation, thereby promoting the steepening of the yield curve characterized by a faster rise in long-term yields. ⑷ Specifically, the yield spread between Germany's 30-year and 10-year government bonds is currently 62.73 basis points. It hit 64.4 basis points last week, the highest level since May 2019, indicating that long-term bonds are under greater selling pressure. ⑸In addition to inflation factors, analysts predict that the Dutch pension reform may become another driving force for the steepening of the curve in the future. Due to changes in law, as long asDutch pension funds, one of the largest buyers of bonds, may reduce their holdings of some ultra-long-term bonds in the future. ⑹ Money markets are now almost fully pricing in the European Central Bank to remain on hold at its December meeting, with little expectation of action in 2026. This is consistent with the recent hawkish statements by many officials to "keep interest rates unchanged." ⑺The unemployment rate in the Eurozone announced at the same time was 6.4% in October, slightly higher than the expected 6.3%. Analysts say signs of labor market weakness are showing up through fewer job openings rather than layoffs, adding a touch of uncertainty to the outlook for economic growth.
⑴ The latest institutional survey shows that Brazil’s economy is expected to grow only moderately in the third quarter by 0.2%, slower than the 0.4% in the second quarter, and the annual growth rate will decelerate from 2.2% to 1.7%, in line with market expectations for the economy to gradually cool down before entering 2026. ⑵ The slowdown in growth is mainly dragged down by the decline in seasonal agricultural output, while the industrial sector has become the least dynamic sector in the economy due to high domestic interest rates and external tariffs, and continues to perform weakly. ⑶Although the service industry benefits from the still strong labor market, it is also expected to lose growth momentum due to weakening household consumption. September retail sales data fell again after a brief rebound in August, confirming the pressure on consumer spending in a high interest rate environment. ⑷The demand side shows differentiation: household consumption has slowed down, but private investment received a one-time boost from the import of an oil platform in the third quarter. The leading indicator reflecting industry-wide activity fell 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, indicating that upcoming data may be weak. ⑸Looking ahead, Latin America's largest economy is expected to maintain a moderate pace of growth before next year's presidential election. Economic growth in the current quarter remains supported by a resilient labor market backdrop and a shift in the expansionary fiscal stance. ⑹ It is worth noting that the income tax reform bill recently signed by President Lula is expected to inject R$28 billion into the economy next year, which may provide additional fiscal impetus for future growth.
⑴ Data released by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management on Tuesday showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose slightly to 50.2 in November, in the expansion range for the fourth consecutive month, mainly due to the simultaneous growth of new orders, new export orders and input purchases. ⑵As the core of the manufacturing industry, the PMI of the electronics industry performed even stronger, rising to 50.6 in November, achieving six consecutive months of expansion. The growth rates of sub-indicators such as new orders, exports, output, procurement and employment have all accelerated, showing that the industry has gained momentum. ⑶Industry analysis points out that the continued global demand for artificial intelligence chips and server hardware is a key factor supporting the expansion of Singapore's manufacturing industry at the end of the year. Rising demand for data center infrastructure and seasonal purchases of consumer electronics have also brought more orders to the electronics industry. ⑷ Export data also sent positive signals. Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports in OctoberExports increased for the second consecutive month, prompting officials to narrow the forecast range for export growth in 2025 from 1%-3% to about 2.5%. ⑸ Despite facing the risk of 10% tariff on exports to the United States and tariffs on potential new industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, current data shows that Singapore's manufacturing industry still shows a certain degree of resilience, driven by strong demand in specific high-growth areas.
The minority government led by French Prime Minister Le Corny is facing a key legislative test. The National Assembly will begin the second reading of the 2026 Social Security Budget Bill on Tuesday. Against the backdrop of a divided parliament, the Prime Minister needs to reach www.xmasseuse.compromises with the opposition parties on controversial issues such as medical welfare expenditures before voting next week. Currently, progress is hampered by differences between the center-left and center-right over issues such as pensions, taxation and indexation of benefit payments. Previously, political turmoil in France once pushed up the spread between France and Germany's 10-year government bonds, but as Le Corny made progress on his budget push and the opposition gave up the threat of forcing him to resign, the risk indicator has narrowed to about 73 basis points.
Regarding Russia’s claim that it has taken control of the Red Army City in the Donetsk region (called Pokrovsk in Ukraine), a spokesman for the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated on the 2nd that the Russian army only entered an area of Pokrovsk through thick fog and withdrew after displaying its flag to promote propaganda. The Ukrainian army is still attacking the Russian army in Pokrovsk and its satellite city Mirnohrad (called Dimitrov in Russia). The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces also reported on the 2nd that the Ukrainian army repelled 72 Russian attacks in the direction of Pokrovsk in the past day.
⑴ European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said that inflation in the euro area has actually reached the target level and will fluctuate around the target. ⑵ Nagel believes that the German economy may grow by more than 1% in 2027. ⑶ These remarks reiterated the view that inflation has reached the target and is likely to fluctuate only around it, provided there are no economic shocks.
⑴ The latest data shows that British consumers spent a total of 3.8 billion pounds (approximately US$5 billion) online during the four-day promotion period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, an increase of 4.6% over the same period last year. ⑵The product categories with the strongest sales are concentrated in jewelry, video games, toys, electronic products, personal care products, sports goods and clothing, reflecting the strong demand for holiday gifts and upgraded consumption. ⑶ In terms of discount intensity, the average discount across all categories is 16.7%, with www.xmasseuse.computers, TVs and clothing products having the deepest price cuts, showing that retailers are stimulating consumption through substantial profit discounts. ⑷Industry organizations pointed out that this year’s Black Friday promotions started earlier than in previous years, and after the uncertainty of the recent tax increase budget has been eliminated,, retailers are looking forward to the Christmas shopping season to drive a rebound in consumer confidence. ⑸For www.xmasseuse.comparison, U.S. consumers are expected to spend nearly $44 billion during the five-day promotion period including Thanksgiving, far exceeding the British market, highlighting the differences in spending capabilities and holiday spending habits of consumers in different regions.
⑴ On Tuesday, U.S. President Trump has a busy schedule. His cabinet meeting is scheduled to be held at 0:30 on Wednesday, Beijing time, and plans to issue an announcement that has attracted much attention from the outside world at 3:00. Market speculation may involve negotiations between Russia and Ukraine or the situation in Venezuela. ⑵ In the field of trade, the United States and the United Kingdom have reached an agreement in principle on drug pricing. The United States will exempt drugs and medical technologies produced in the United Kingdom from tariffs, while the United Kingdom agrees to increase the www.xmasseuse.com price of new drugs paid to the United States by 25%. ⑶In terms of technology industry policy, the U.S. Department of www.xmasseuse.commerce has agreed to invest up to $150 million in xLight, a chip technology startup related to the former Intel CEO. This move may make the U.S. government the www.xmasseuse.company’s largest shareholder. ⑷ During the diplomatic activities, Trump had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister www.xmasseuse.comanyahu and invited him to visit the United States in the near future. The two sides discussed issues such as the demilitarization of Gaza. At the same time, Trump warned Israel not to interfere in Syrian affairs. ⑸Regarding the Honduras presidential election, Trump questioned the vote counting process, saying that the country seemed to be "trying to change the election results." ⑹ In terms of personal health, the White House announced that the MRI examination he recently received was of a preventive nature, and the results showed that his cardiovascular condition was good and no abnormalities were found.
⑴ As the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate meeting approaches, the market’s expectations for an interest rate cut are highly consistent. On Tuesday, Bank of America Global Research joined Wall Street peers such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs in predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 9-10 meeting. ⑵ This increase in expectations is mainly due to two reasons: first, key voting members of the Federal Reserve have recently released clear dovish signals; second, labor market conditions have shown signs of weakness, which together have strengthened market expectations for lower borrowing costs. ⑶According to futures market pricing, traders estimate that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December is as high as 87.2%, reflecting that the market has almost regarded this as a baseline scenario. ⑷ Among major institutions, interest rate cuts have become an overwhelming consensus. According to the latest statistics, 10 of the 14 major brokerages have clearly predicted that interest rates will be cut by 25 basis points in December. ⑸At the same time, only a few institutions, including Morgan Stanley, Nomura Securities, Standard Chartered Bank and Macquarie Group, believe that the central bank will remain on hold, showing a small but clear divergence in market views. ⑹ The vast majority of institutions that predict interest rate cuts also predict that the federal funds rate target range will drop to 3.50%-3.75% by the end of 2025.
⑴ JPMorgan Chase pointed out in the latest research report that the Bank of EnglandThe bank's adjustment to the capital framework will help reduce the high cost of equity financing in the banking industry, but the scope of the reform is conservative and does not touch other areas with potential, so the overall impact is limited. ⑵ The specific adjustment is that the Bank of England lowered the system-wide core tier 1 capital adequacy benchmark requirement by 1 percentage point to about 13% of risk-weighted assets. This range is in line with JPMorgan Chase’s benchmark forecast. ⑶ However, the report criticized the Bank of England for avoiding adjustments to the countercyclical capital buffer framework, a reform that could have further reduced the banking industry's overall capital requirements. ⑷ Analysts emphasized in the report that this adjustment means that the opportunity to deepen reforms has been missed. www.xmasseuse.compared with the active pace of regulatory changes in other regions such as the United States, the pace of UK financial regulatory reforms has lagged behind.
⑴ On Tuesday, affected by low oil prices, most Gulf stock markets performed flatly. Investors are awaiting the release of key U.S. economic data for a clearer signal on the path of interest rates from the Federal Reserve. ⑵ Despite continued geopolitical risks, Brent crude oil futures prices fell 0.3% to $62.99 per barrel. Crude oil prices are still hovering near multi-month lows after a recent rebound, putting pressure on the fiscal balance of oil-reliant Gulf states by lowering fiscal revenues. ⑶ Specific market performance is divided: the Saudi benchmark index fell slightly by 0.1%, falling for the third consecutive trading day; the Qatar index rebounded after falling in early trading, closing up 0.5%, led by Qatar Islamic Bank. ⑷The market focus has turned to U.S. economic data. Data on Monday showed that the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for a ninth consecutive month, while Wednesday's ADP private employment report and Friday's postponed September PCE inflation data are seen as key indicators affecting the Federal Reserve's decision-making at next week's meeting. ⑸According to futures market pricing, traders currently predict that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is as high as 87%. This strong easing expectation contrasts with stock markets in the Gulf region that are under pressure due to weak oil prices, highlighting the current main drivers of different markets.
EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1616, an increase of 0.05%. Prices (EUR/USD) have declined in the last trading session pre-market in New York as it attempts to find rising lows on which to base itself, which may help it gain the bullish momentum it needs to recover as it trades within a bullish correction channel range on a short-term basis and as it trades above the EMA50, there is clear positive pressure that is exaggerated www.xmasseuse.compared to the price action, indicating the formation of a positive divergence.
GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell, now trading at 1.3204, a decrease of 0.06%. Before the New York market opens, GBPUSD is atIt remains in sideways territory after the decline, supported by stability above the short-term uptrend line and EMA50, while the Relative Strength Index shows strong oversold levels, indicating positive divergence. We expect short-term upside, targeting the 1.3265 resistance, if the key 1.3195 support holds.
Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now trading at 4204.50, a decrease of 0.65%. Pre-market in New York, the (gold) price continued to fall in the last trading session to continue trying to gain bullish momentum that may help it recover and rise again, using the positive support it has received as it trades above the EMA50, strengthening its chances of another rise, especially in the short term.
Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now trading at 57.482, a decrease of 0.85%. Pre-market in New York, the (silver) price fell in the last trading session, gathering positive forces that could push it higher again. The main bullish trend is dominant in the short term and its trading is along the secondary and major trend lines supporting this trend. Furthermore, as it is trading above the EMA50, in addition to the relative strength indicator reaching exaggerated oversold levels www.xmasseuse.compared to the price action, indicating the formation of a positive divergence.
Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now trading at 59.130, a decrease of 0.32%. Before the New York session, (crude oil) prices fell on the last trading day as it tried to gain the bullish momentum needed for recovery, as it traded above the EMA50, influenced by a positive technical formation (double bottom pattern) formed on a short-term basis, as well as the emergence of positive overlapping signals on the relative strength indicator, after unloading its overbought conditions, opening the way to more gains in the www.xmasseuse.coming period.
BNP Paribas predicted in its latest outlook that British government bond yields will remain range-bound in the first half of 2026 and begin to fall in the second half of the year. The bank’s analysis believes that the recent budget shows that the UK is promoting moderate fiscal consolidation, and it is expected that the national debt will decline in 2026.The relationship between supply and demand will gradually improve, but local elections in the first half of the year may increase political uncertainty and put pressure on yields. The specific prediction is that the 10-year British bond yield will reach 4.50% at the end of the second quarter and drop to 4.30% by the end of the year. The current yield is about 4.491%.
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: Inflation data stirs the market, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on December 2". It is carefully www.xmasseuse.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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