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U.S. initial filings hit three-year low, Bank of Japan almost certain to raise interest rates in December

Post time: 2025-12-05 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: U.S. initial filing data hit a three-year low, and the Bank of Japan is almost certain to raise interest rates in December." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On December 5, in early Asian trading on Friday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.03. On Thursday, as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week, the U.S. dollar index recovered slightly, but was still close to the five-week low hit during the session, and finally closed up 0.2% at 99.06; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finally closed at 4.1030%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, closed at 3.5310%. Data showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States last week was far lower than economists expected, falling to the lowest level in more than three years. Spot gold maintained a volatile trend during the day and finally closed up 0.15% at US$4208.48 per ounce; spot silver suffered profit-taking and finally closed down 2.33% at US$57.11 per ounce. Oil prices rose in choppy trading on Thursday as markets weighed geopolitical tensions against news that Saudi Arabia had cut prices for Asia's main crude oil. WTI crude oil finally closed up 1.08% at US$59.74/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.91% at US$63.32/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.03. The dollar edged higher on Thursday, ending a nine-session losing streak, but remained near five-week lows as markets braced for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Traders are likely to accelerate their selling of the dollar as expectations grow for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week and speculation intensifies that Powell may be replaced by a more dovish figure. Technically, if the US dollar index falls below 98.85, it will move towards the next support level of 98.00-98.15.

U.S. initial filings hit three-year low, Bank of Japan almost certain to raise interest rates in December(图1)

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1649. The euro retreated slightly on Thursday as traders digested the latest round of U.S. employment data while also awaiting the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. The narrative in financial markets has not changed, and investors are awaiting the Fed’s December 10 release date. Decision day. U.S. economic data provided a tailwind for the dollar, with initial jobless claims falling sharply in the week to November 29, indicating that the labor market remains strong. Technically, if EUR/USD falls back below 1.1650, it will move towards the nearest support level, which is located in the 1.1585 to 1.1600 range. src="/uploads/2025/12/uwgmh4c4vqa.jpg" GBP/USD: GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3327 at press time. GBP/USD failed to break through the 1.3350 mark on Thursday, falling back below the key technical level, paring some of the gains gained from a strong rebound earlier in the week, but the US dollar index gained. (DXY) The seven-day pullback has not translated into a one-for-one gain on the GBP/USD chart. Technically, a successful test of resistance at 1.3360 to 1.3375 would open the way for a test of the next resistance at 1.3475 to 1.3490.

U.S. initial filings hit three-year low, Bank of Japan almost certain to raise interest rates in December(图2)

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

On Friday in Asia, gold hovered around 4203.92. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the joy of U.S. employment data. The outlook limited the precious metal's upside. Traders may prefer to wait and see before the release of key U.S. inflation data. The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report will be released later on Friday. src="/uploads/2025/12/0bglwamtrso.jpg" />

Technical: Gold is still biased towards the upside, and the intraday closing price above $4,200 paves the way for price gains. The relative strength index (RSI) is still bullish, but has stabilized, indicating consolidation. If gold breaks through $4,250, it may try to hit $4,300, the next one. The target is the all-time high of $4,381. On the other hand, if gold falls below $4,200, the support level is the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $4,124, followed by the $4,100 support level in front of the 50-day moving average of $4,059.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

Weekly.In the five Asian markets, crude oil was trading around 59.39. Oil prices closed higher on Thursday, mainly driven by the dual factors of expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the deadlock in Ukraine peace talks. In addition, the market is awaiting U.S. inflation data to determine the Fed's policy outlook next week.

U.S. initial filings hit three-year low, Bank of Japan almost certain to raise interest rates in December(图3)

Technical: Crude oil prices have turned from weakness within the channel to a breakthrough, with the 50-day moving average becoming the current immediate obstacle. A daily closing price above $60.06 and holding above the 50-day mark confirms buyer control, targeting a low of $63.03; the weekly reversal and tired descending channel reinforce the view that sellers are exhausted and that price gains are still ahead. Of course, this argument will be negated as soon as the price falls below $58.36.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on December 5, 2025

23:00 The annual rate of the core PCE price index in September in the United States

23:00 The initial value of the one-year inflation rate in the United States in December

23:00 The monthly rate of personal expenditures in the United States in September

23:00 The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in December

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23:00 US September core PCE price index monthly rate

The next day at 02:00 the total number of oil rigs in the United States for the week to December 5

The above content is about "[XM official website]: US preliminary request data hit a three-year low, the Bank of Japan is almost certain to raise interest rates in December". It was carefully www.xmasseuse.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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