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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex official website]: The deadlock in Ukraine peace talks supports the rise in oil prices, and gold prices remain stable, waiting for US inflation data." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (December 5, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,207.50 per ounce. Gold prices were basically stable on Thursday, showing a tug-of-war pattern between long and short factors. The market is waiting for U.S. inflation data to determine the Fed's policy outlook next week; U.S. crude oil traded around $59.70 per barrel. Oil prices closed higher on Thursday, mainly driven by the dual factors of expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the deadlock in Ukraine peace talks.
U.S. stocks closed almost flat on Thursday, with major stock indexes mixed. On the one hand, the market is supported by optimistic expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next week. On the other hand, it is dragged down by the decline of individual stocks such as Amazon.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.07%, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.11% and the Nasdaq rose 0.22%. Market focus was on mixed economic data: Initial jobless claims fell to a more than three-year low, but factory orders grew less than expected. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90%.
In terms of individual stocks, Amazon's stock price fell 1.4%, becoming the main factor dragging down the S&P index due to uncertainty about its future cooperation with the U.S. Postal Service. On the contrary, Salesforce shares climbed 3.7% as it raised its fiscal year outlook due to its optimistic demand for artificial intelligence; MetaPlatforms rose 3.4% on reports that it plans to reduce the Metaverse budget.
The performance of the sectors was divided. The consumer staples sector weakened due to Kroger's lowered sales forecast., while discount retailer Dollar General’s stock price surged 14% as it raised its profit forecast. Snowflake, a cloud data analytics www.xmasseuse.company, fell 11.4% after its revenue outlook fell short of high market expectations.
Gold prices were basically stable on Thursday, showing a tug-of-war pattern between long and short factors. Markets are awaiting key U.S. inflation data to gauge the Fed's policy outlook next week.
As of the close, spot gold rose slightly by 0.1% to US$4,210.49 per ounce. Price action was muted as pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields offset support from a weaker U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index fell to a one-month low, making gold cheaper in other currencies, but a rise in the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Market focus has www.xmasseuse.completely turned to the U.S. September PCE price index to be released on Friday, which is the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator. Recent labor market data has given mixed signals: Thursday's data showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in more than three years last week, but Wednesday's ADP report showed that private employment fell. Most economists predict that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting to support the cooling job market.
Analysts believe that the market will remain on the sidelines before major events, and gold prices may be stuck in a range for a period of time, and it is unlikely to retest the historical high of nearly $4,400 this year.
In other precious metals, silver fell 2.6% to $56.96 an ounce, retreating after hitting a record high on Wednesday. Silver’s cumulative gain this year is still as high as approximately 97.3%. Platinum and palladium also fell 1.7% and 1.4% respectively.
Oil prices closed higher on Thursday, mainly driven by the dual factors of expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the deadlock in Ukraine peace talks.
As of the close, Brent crude oil rose 0.94%, with a settlement price of US$63.26 per barrel; US crude oil rose 1.22%, with a settlement price of US$59.67. Market expectations that U.S. interest rate cuts will support the world's largest economy and oil demand, while a weaker dollar also makes crude oil cheaper in other currencies, have jointly pushed up oil prices.
In terms of geopolitics, the perception that progress in peace negotiations in Ukraine has stalled has provided additional support for oil prices. Trump's representatives ended peace talks with the Kremlin but failed to achieve a breakthrough in ending the war, undermining market expectations for a resumption of Russian oil exports.
Although data from the U.S. Energy www.xmasseuse.comrmation Administration showed that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 574,000 barrels last week, contrary to market expectations for a decrease, this negative news did not change the upward trend of oil prices. Analysts pointed out that supply concerns caused by escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela also supported oil prices.
The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday, ending a nine-day losing streak, but overall remained at a five-week low.Near the point, the market is preparing for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week. At the same time, the Japanese yen continued to strengthen to its highest level in nearly two and a half weeks as market expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this month increased.
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.02, initially halting nine consecutive losses. The market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week is close to 90%. Despite strong initial jobless claims data in the United States last week, it did not change the market's firm expectations for an interest rate cut. In addition, speculation that White House economic adviser Hassett may take over as chairman of the Federal Reserve continues, and the market believes that its policy stance may be dovish. This factor also puts pressure on the dollar.
The yen rose 0.2% against the dollar to 155.015 yen, close to its strongest level since November 17. The driving force mainly www.xmasseuse.comes from market expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at its December meeting.
The euro fell 0.2% against the dollar to $1.1649. Strong euro zone business activity data failed to offset the dollar's short-lived rebound. Sterling fell 0.2% against the dollar to $1.3333, but remained near recent highs.
Analysts pointed out that despite the strong bearish sentiment on the U.S. dollar, it may not be wise to bet heavily on the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar at this time, and the current trend may not last until early next year. For the yen, while the market is paying attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes, it is also wary of the uncertainty of its follow-up policies and the pressure that may be brought about by carry trades.
The total amount of sovereign debt issued by the U.S. Treasury Department exceeded $30 trillion for the first time, more than doubling since 2018. Data released on Thursday showed that as of November, the U.S. government’s outstanding Treasury bills (Treasury bills), medium-term Treasury bonds (notes) and long-term Treasury bonds (bonds) totaled $30.2 trillion. This $30.2 trillion debt is a major www.xmasseuse.component of the total U.S. federal debt.
On December 4, recent themes continued to emerge in the SOFR options market: traders are focusing on a variety of structured trades in the first two quarters of next year to hedge against the possibility of multiple Fed interest rate cuts, or even a (single) 50 basis point rate cut. Fed-dated overnight index swaps (Fed-dated OIS) currently price the effective rate at next June’s meeting at about 3.30%, about 60 basis points below the Fed’s current effective rate. A continuing theme over the past few trading days has been the purchase of upside structures in January, March and June SOFR options designed to hedge against more of a rate cut premium than is currently priced in in the swap market.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said on the 4th,Russia will respond to the EU's possible confiscation of Russian frozen assets. Zakharova told a press conference in St. Petersburg that if the EU confiscates Russia's frozen assets, "they will get a surprise." Zakharova did not specify what kind of response Russia would make. She said that Russia believed that the relevant behavior of European www.xmasseuse.commission President von der Leyen was "inappropriate."
Gazprombank and Alfa Bank are seeking permission to do business in India, according to four people familiar with the matter. The move www.xmasseuse.comes as Russia seeks to expand trade with its largest seaborne oil customer. U.S. President Trump has recently put pressure on the Indian authorities on India's relations with Russia, and India and Russia aim to increase bilateral trade volume from the current $69 billion to $100 billion by 2030. Alfa Bank, Russia's largest private bank, has been under Western sanctions since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Gazprombank, part-owned by energy www.xmasseuse.company Gazprom, previously handled payments for Moscow's energy exports until it was placed on the sanctions list last year. Two banks have applied to India's central bank for licenses to open branches in the country, four sources said, with an announcement expected to be made during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India.
The Swiss Economic Federation, an important Swiss economic organization, pointed out on the 3rd that major uncertainties affecting the global market and protectionist measures taken by some countries have put pressure on Switzerland's export-oriented economy and will drag down its economic growth next year. The Swiss Economic Federation predicts that Switzerland's real GDP growth will slow to 1.0% in 2026 after reaching 1.2% in 2025, continuing to be below its potential level. According to forecasts, overseas sales in the country's technology industry, watchmaking industry, textile industry, chemical industry and export-oriented food industry will decline in 2026.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the NATO Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held in Brussels, the capital of Belgium, on the 3rd. The meeting focused on how NATO can continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine and other issues. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio's absence from the meeting has attracted attention from the outside world. Analysts pointed out that as the United States has recently "crossed" Europe to promote the Russia-Ukraine "peace plan", Rubio's absence once again reflects the United States' disregard for NATO and European allies, which may further deepen Europe's distrust of the United States. At the same time, multiple differences within NATO have been exposed in aspects such as the allocation of military aid to Ukraine and the distribution of military industry benefits, and internal contradictions have become prominent.
A research report released by Swiss banking giant UBS on Thursday showed that the number of billionaires worldwide will reach a new high in 2025, driven by soaring valuations of technology www.xmasseuse.companies and rising global stock markets. This report is based on some of UBS’s ultra-high www.xmasseuse.com worth clients.Survey, and billionaire wealth database covering all regions and 47 markets around the world. Currently, there are about 2,900 billionaires in the world, with a www.xmasseuse.combined wealth of US$15.8 trillion, www.xmasseuse.compared with about 2,700 people and nearly US$14 trillion a year ago. The number of new billionaires in 2025 was 287, the second highest since UBS began collecting statistics in 2015, and only lower than 2021, when large-scale stimulus and low-interest-rate policies from many governments drove asset prices to soar.
The Federal Reserve announced the pricing of payment services for banks and credit unions, covering check clearing, automatic clearing transactions, and instant payments. The pricing plan will take effect on January 1 next year. In its statement, the Fed expects to recover 108% of actual and imputed costs by 2026. At the same time, the Federal Reserve pointed out that if each reserve bank hopes to maintain the current level of check services, it will need to make large-scale investments in related infrastructure. Check usage continues to decline, digital payments are becoming more popular, and check fraud cases are on the rise. Possible future adjustment directions include: stopping investment in check infrastructure to control operating costs, but this will lead to a decline in service reliability in the long term; continuing to invest in infrastructure in the context of rising costs to maintain and possibly improve the quality of check services; significantly reducing or even basically stopping check services, thereby reducing overall operating costs.
Since this year, in the face of the www.xmasseuse.complex international trade environment, Zhejiang Yiwu’s foreign trade has still shown strong resilience. According to statistics from Yiwu Customs, in the first 10 months of this year, Yiwu's import and export scale exceeded the 700 billion mark for the first time, reaching 701.19 billion yuan, exceeding the import and export scale in 2024. From the perspective of the trade market, in the first 10 months of this year, Yiwu's import and export to emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America increased by 21.8% and 14% respectively, and its import and export to ASEAN increased by more than 50%, reaching 51%, a strong growth rate. Today, there are still more than two months until the Spring Festival of the Year of the Horse, but in the "World Supermarket" Yiwu, the flavor of the New Year is already getting stronger. Not only have new traditional New Year products such as blessing characters, couplets, and lanterns been launched, but many creative goodies have also begun to sell well.
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