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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: Supply concerns support oil prices, US private employment data is weak, gold prices remain stable, and silver reaches new highs." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (December 4, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,206.67 per ounce. The price of gold was stable on Wednesday, while silver hit a record high of US$58.95 per ounce. ounces, as weak U.S. private employment data boosted market interest rate cut expectations; U.S. crude oil traded around $59/barrel, with oil prices closing higher on Wednesday as U.S.-Russian talks on ending the war in Ukraine failed to reach a breakthrough, weakening prospects for easing sanctions on the Russian oil industry in the short term and releasing more supply.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday. Weak ADP employment data and mild service PMI strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week, pushing major stock indexes higher. The Dow rose 0.86%, the S&P 500 rose 0.30%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.17%.
Microsoft once fell 3% in early trading due to negative reports related to AI sales quotas, but the decline narrowed to 2.5% after the www.xmasseuse.company denied it. Its trend limited the gains of the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks. The market is also paying attention to rumors about the candidate for the chairman of the Federal Reserve, believing that it may be dovish.
In terms of sectors, the energy sector led the gains as oil prices rose, while chip stocks Marvell and Microchip soared due to mergers and acquisitions and positive performance. Small-cap stocks continued to outperform the broader market, reflecting market optimism about the start of a rate-cutting cycle. Traders now see a near 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut next week.
Gold prices were basically stable on Wednesday, while silver hit another record high, as weak private employment data in the United States boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts.
Spot gold was quoted at 42 per ounce02.06 US dollars, little change, and hit an intraday high of 4241.29 US dollars at the beginning of the session. U.S. gold futures for February delivery closed 0.3% higher at $4,232.50.
Spot silver stabilized after hitting a record high of $58.95 an ounce early in the session. Analysis pointed out that the strong performance of silver (which has more than doubled since the beginning of this year) has provided support to gold. At the same time, it has also been driven by factors such as supply shortages, liquidity concerns, and being included in the U.S. critical mineral list. Both platinum and palladium prices rose slightly.
The market focus is on the latest ADP employment report showing an unexpected decrease in private sector employment in the United States in November, which strengthens market expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at next week's policy meeting. Traders are now betting on a near 90% chance of a rate cut next week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Investors are awaiting Friday's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed's preferred key inflation measure, for more clues on policy.
Oil prices closed higher on Wednesday, mainly due to the failure of the market to reach a breakthrough in the talks between the United States and Russia on ending the war in Ukraine, which weakened the prospect of easing sanctions on the Russian oil industry and releasing more supply in the short term, thus providing support for oil prices.
Brent crude oil futures rose 0.4% to close at $62.67 a barrel; U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.5% to close at $58.95 a barrel.
However, concerns about oversupply limited oil price gains. The latest data from the U.S. Energy www.xmasseuse.comrmation Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories increased across the board last week, and all exceeded market expectations, indicating ample market supply. Traders pointed out that despite the support brought by geopolitical tensions, global crude oil supplies generally remain sufficient and the market is in a tense trading state.
The foreign exchange market showed significant differentiation on Wednesday. Affected by the www.xmasseuse.combination of strong economic data in the euro zone and weak employment data in the United States, the euro-dollar exchange rate rose 0.43% to 1.1673, hitting the highest level in the past seven weeks. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.45%, which strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week, with the probability rising to 89%.
The Japanese yen continued to be supported by the Bank of Japan’s clear signal to raise interest rates, and the U.S. dollar fell 0.47% against the Japanese yen. The pound also rebounded sharply, rising more than 1%.
The main factor driving the market is the difference in performance of the European and American economies. Business activity in the euro zone expanded at the fastest pace in two and a half years in November, while U.S. ADP private employment unexpectedly fell.
In addition, political speculation about the possibility of changing the chairman of the Federal Reserve and implementing looser policies, as well as market optimism about a possible peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, also suppressed the dollar.
Local timeOn December 3, shipping data and documents showed that Venezuela’s oil exports rose slightly to about 921,000 barrels per day in November, the third highest monthly average so far this year. Data based on tanker movements show that U.S. military operations in the Caribbean have not disrupted Venezuela's oil imports and exports, with Venezuelan crude oil and fuel exports rising 3% last month www.xmasseuse.compared with October. Oil exports to the United States increased to approximately 150,000 barrels per day (128,000 barrels per day in October). At the same time, exports of Venezuelan petroleum by-products and petrochemical products also increased to approximately 277,000 tons from 195,000 tons in October. Imports of light crude oil and fuels more than doubled from 74,000 barrels per day in October to about 167,000 barrels per day.
On December 3, local time, a U.S. White House official stated that the United States and Russia held an in-depth and productive meeting. After meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 2nd, U.S. special envoys Witkov and Kushner reported the situation to U.S. President Trump.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Serbiga said in Brussels on the 3rd local time that the United States has invited the Ukrainian delegation to the United States in the near future to continue consultations on peace negotiations. Serbiga said that after a five-hour meeting between U.S. representatives and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on December 2, Umerov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, had a phone call with Witkov, the special envoy of the U.S. President. The United States assessed that the Moscow talks had "positive significance" for the peace process and formally issued the above invitation. Serbiga stressed that the current peace negotiations are based on the 20-point document produced at the Geneva talks. "The United States has carefully listened to the Uzbek side's position, and the document is continuing to advance. Some of the most sensitive issues have been marked and are left to the leaders of various countries for final decisions." He also revealed that on the 3rd, Uzbekistan was coordinating with partners such as the United Kingdom, Germany and France on the progress of the negotiations.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Wednesday that he plans to push for a requirement that the presidents of the 12 regional Feds should live in their jurisdictions for at least three years before being appointed to lead their respective regional Feds. Bessant said he would push for future appointments of candidates who do not meet this age requirement to be vetoed by the Fed's Board of Governors in Washington. "The Chairman of the Federal Reserve and the Board of Governors ... have the final say on who is appointed to the board of directors of regional banks," Bessent said, "so I think ... unless someone has lived in the jurisdiction for three years, we will veto it."
According to people familiar with the matter, Trump’s advisers and allies are discussing a personnel arrangement: If Hassett is nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, current Treasury Secretary Bessent may also serve as the director of the White House National Economic Council. This arrangement aims toThis will enable Bessent to fully take charge of the economic policies of the Trump administration and strengthen the coordination between the Treasury Department and the White House on economic affairs. The relevant plans have not yet been finalized. A White House official said any personnel changes are speculative until the president makes a formal announcement. The Ministry of Finance did not www.xmasseuse.comment on the matter.
On the 2nd local time, US President Trump stated at a White House Cabinet meeting that he would soon launch a land-based crackdown on drug trafficking groups in the Caribbean. This is the second time Trump has made a similar threat in less than a week. Trump said the move would effectively crack down on countries that smuggle drugs into the United States, mentioning Venezuela and Colombia. Defense Minister Hegseth also said that the crackdown on "drug trafficking ships" has just begun. The move sparked opposition from Democratic lawmakers, who called it an act of war. The United States has conducted frequent military activities in the Caribbean, and U.S. naval ships and military aircraft have frequently appeared in Puerto Rico in recent days. Trump's threat has been analyzed as extreme pressure on the Venezuelan government and may affect the 2026 midterm elections.
Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to India will begin on December 4 and will hold a closed-door meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The official visit schedule will start on December 5 (Friday). Putin will meet with Indian President Droupadi Murmu and Prime Minister Modi respectively. Putin and Modi will hold small-scale talks and expanded talks. After the talks, Putin and Modi will sign an intergovernmental agreement and issue a statement to the media.
Five months after releasing a plan to accelerate the development of artificial intelligence, the Trump administration is shifting its focus to the field of robotics. Three anonymous people familiar with the matter revealed that the U.S. Secretary of www.xmasseuse.commerce has met frequently with CEOs of the robotics industry recently and is making every effort to promote the development of the industry. Two of the people also said the government is considering issuing an executive order on robotics next year. A spokesman for the U.S. Department of www.xmasseuse.commerce claimed: "We are www.xmasseuse.committed to the development of robotics and advanced manufacturing because they are critical to the return of key U.S. industries." Another person familiar with the matter said that the U.S. Department of Transportation also plans to set up a special working group on robotics before the end of the year, but a spokesman for the department has not yet responded for www.xmasseuse.comment. Interest in the field of robotics is also rising on Capitol Hill. Previously, a Republican congressman proposed an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act, proposing the establishment of a National Robotics www.xmasseuse.commission, but the amendment was ultimately not included in the bill, and relevant legislative actions are still in progress.
In the early morning of today (December 4), China Eastern Airlines flight MU745 took off from Shanghai Pudong International Airport, passing through Auckland and finally arriving in Buenos Aires, Argentina. This crosses the eastThe route, which covers the Western Hemisphere and the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, covers a distance of approximately 20,000 kilometers, setting a new record for the longest one-way route in the world and shortening the flight from China to South America by more than four hours. The new route launched this time is planned to have two round-trip flights per week. In addition to setting the longest flight distance in the world, the new route fills the gap in direct flights from Shanghai to core cities in South America, builds a "south passage" flight path across the Pacific, and reshapes the way of air travel between three continents.
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