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At the same time, market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December continue to increase, putting further downward pressure on the dollar. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders expect the probability of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week has risen to 87%. Reports that the dovish White House economic adviser Hassett may become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve also exacerbated the weakness of the U.S. dollar. In the United States, manufacturing data released on Monday showed that the industry shrank for the ninth consecutive month, highlighting the challenges facing the economy. Among other major currencies, the euro rose slightly against the U.S. dollar by 0.1%, and the pound fell slightly against the U.S. dollar by 0.2%.
The market focus has shifted from whether to cut interest rates in December to the future policy path of the Federal Reserve.. Some analysts believe that there may be a "hawkish interest rate cut" in December, which is to cut interest rates while signaling that there will be no further actions in the short term.
The UK manufacturing PMI was finally set at 50.2 in November, higher than 49.7, hitting a 14-month high. S&P Global's Rob Dobson said there were further signs of recovery this month, with output rising for a second straight month and new orders stabilizing after more than a year of declines. Business optimism also strengthened to a nine-month high.
Notably, this improvement www.xmasseuse.comes amid heightened business uncertainty ahead of the autumn budget, during which some www.xmasseuse.companies remain cautious. Market sentiment is expected to improve further in December as political pressure eases - although Dobson noted that the chancellor's "lack of significant pro-growth measures" may have limited the size of the rebound in activity or investment.
Price indicators are dovish. Rising www.xmasseuse.competitive pressure and cooling cost inflation pushed factory ticket prices down for the first time in more than two years. This www.xmasseuse.combination of an industrial recovery that remains weak and easing price pressures reinforces a shift in the Bank of England's policy debate away from concerns about inflation and towards supporting growth.
Data across countries show significant divisions. Six of the eight economies surveyed maintained expansion - Ireland at 52.8, Greece at 52.7 and the www.xmasseuse.comherlands at 51.8. Italy and Austria also hit multi-year highs, suggesting broad stabilization under the surface. However, overall conditions remain weak as the region's industrial giants continue to shrink. Germany fell to a nine-month low of 48.2, while France remained at 47.8.
HCOB’s Cyrus de la Rubbia stressed that while most countries were improving, declines in the two largest economies overshadowed progress elsewhere. Weakness in France reflects ongoing political uncertainty, delaying investment decisions, while in Germany there is frustration over government direction and growing doubts about the country's ability to reform.
Nonetheless, forward-looking sentiment across the EU has improved. Most www.xmasseuse.companies expect output to grow in the www.xmasseuse.coming year, with Germany gradually returning to optimism and France clearly moving into positive territory. The improvement suggests confidence may be stabilizing after a difficult year.
The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell from 48.7 to 48.2 in November, lower than the expected 49.0, contracting for the ninth consecutive month.
New orders dropped sharply from 49.4 to 47.4. The employment rate further deteriorated from 46.0 to 44.0. Production was one of the few bright spots, rising from 48.2 to 51.4, indicating that production remains stable even as new business slows. Input prices edged up to 58.5 from 58.0.
Based on the historical relationship between PMI manufacturing and broader activity, the November reading is estimated to correspond to an annualized increase in real GDP of 1.7%.
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