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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: CME Group experienced several hours of outage last Friday, and Trump has finalized the candidate for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On December 1, in early trading in the Asian market, spot gold was trading around US$4,240 per ounce. The gold price, driven by the continued rise in expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, saw an overall rise in the precious metals market in November. Spot gold hit a two-week high of 4,226.56 last Friday. US dollars/ounce, silver has set a new historical record, showing the strong momentum of the precious metals market; US crude oil is trading around US$59.55/barrel, up 1.64%. A Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is "very likely" to be reached to limit oil price increases. However, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard seized a smuggled fuel tanker in the Persian Gulf, boosting the morning oil price trend.
Against the backdrop of rising expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar weakened sharply last week, recording its worst weekly performance since July 21. Weak U.S. economic data prompted traders to increase bets that the Federal Reserve is about to begin a rate-cutting cycle.
The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.61% last week. This decline was mainly due to the strengthening of market expectations for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Strategists pointed out: "The series of data released after the government shutdown is generally soft, and the overall data does tend to support interest rate cuts."
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, federal funds rate futures traders currently expect that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at the December 9-10 meeting has risen to 87%, a significant increase from 71% a week ago. The change www.xmasseuse.comes as Fed officials are about to enter a pre-meeting quiet period.
The Japanese yen rose 0.14% against the US dollar to 156.09 yen. The market is paying close attention to Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s upcoming speech on Monday to find out whether the December meeting will beclues on whether to raise interest rates. James Lord, head of foreign exchange and emerging market strategy at Morgan Stanley, believes that taking into account the current level of the dollar against the yen and the fiscal plan announced by the government, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December.
The British pound rose 1.09% last week, recording its best weekly performance since early August. The gains were largely driven by Chancellor Reeves's budget plan, which will finance additional welfare spending by raising taxes to the highest level since World War II.
The Canadian dollar rose 0.39% against the U.S. dollar to 1.398 Canadian dollars. Canada's economy grew much better than expected in the third quarter as crude oil exports and government spending boosted economic activity.
CME Group's data center was suspended for more than 11 hours due to cooling problems, but the foreign exchange market did not react much to this in light trading after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. "Liquidity remains thin as most market participants have www.xmasseuse.completed month-end trading before the holidays," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay.
The latest data released by RatingDog on Monday showed that China's RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) unexpectedly fell, falling to 49.9 in November and 50.6 in October. The consensus forecast is 50.5.
The European Central Bank's October consumer expectations survey showed a slight increase in short-term inflation expectations, with the 12-month median outlook rising to 2.8% from 2.7% in September.
Long-term expectations remain stable, with the three-year outlook maintained at 2.5% and the five-year indicator anchored at 2.2%. Inflation uncertainty has also been stable, suggesting consumers are not seeing significant changes in underlying trends.
On the economic front, consumers were slightly more optimistic about growth. GDP forecast for the next 12 months improved to -1.1%, up from -1.2% previously. However, labor market expectations have declined. Consumers now expect the unemployment rate to reach 11.0% within 12 months, up from 10.7% in September.
The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer rose slightly in November, from 101.5 to 101.7, indicating a slight improvement in the short-term economic outlook.
KOF pointed out that this improvement is mainly concentrated on the demand side. A www.xmasseuse.combination of indicators tied to foreign demand and private consumption strengthened, suggesting both external orders and household activity were on solid footing.
On the production side, however, parts of the economy are still under pressure. Indicators in the financial and insurance services and construction sectors all deteriorated, pointing to a www.xmasseuse.complex underlying situation.
Swiss GDP fell 0.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking a sharp reversal driven almost entirely by the chemicals and pharmaceuticals industry. After strong momentum at the start of the year, industry output plunged 7.9%, erasing theThe previous increase dragged down the overall economy into contraction.
The authorities pointed out that the decline reflected the recent volatility in foreign trade. Pharmaceutical exports surged in earlier quarters, in part due to front-loading ahead of changes in U.S. trade policy. These temporary boosts have now been lifted, resulting in a "compensating decline" that had a significant impact on activity in the third quarter.
The Canadian economy returned to growth in the third quarter, growing by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, after contracting by 0.5% in the second quarter. This improvement was mainly due to a stronger trade balance, with lower imports and a slight increase in exports.
Government-led capital investment also provided support, although business investment was flat. These increases were partially offset by declines in household and government consumption and slower inventory accumulation.
On a per capita basis, GDP rose 0.5% year-on-year after falling 0.5% in the previous quarter, bringing some relief amid ongoing concerns about sluggish productivity and dilution of population-driven output.
Monthly data were consistent with expectations, with GDP growing by 0.2% month-on-month in September.
Trump: Revoke all documents signed by former US President Biden through automatic signature devices.
Trump: Don’t read too much into the U.S.’s move to close Venezuela’s airspace. This does not mean that air strikes are imminent; Trump confirmed that he had a phone call with Venezuelan President Maduro; US fighter jets circled near the Venezuelan coast, and Venezuela launched military exercises to deal with the "blocked airspace."
Trump: I know who I want to elect as chairman of the Federal Reserve, and I will announce it soon.
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